West Ham United — Charlton Athletic: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.6% |
| 12 | 81.7% | |
| X2 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.5% / 39.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.1% / 61.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
West Ham United
12th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Burnley 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Leeds 3:0
- 17.05.2026 away Newcastle 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 02.05.2026 away Brentford 0:3
Charlton Athletic
4th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Derby 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Swansea 1:3
- 25.04.2026 home Hull 2:1
- 22.04.2026 home Ipswich 1:2
- 18.04.2026 away Sheffield Weds 1:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Ham United enter this Championship fixture with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Charlton Athletic. The available assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, while the moderate confidence suggests that this superiority should be treated as a meaningful lean rather than a certainty. The market signal also favours a home result, giving West Ham United the stronger starting position.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, although the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That combination leaves room for different scenarios: West Ham United could control the game and keep Charlton Athletic at a distance, but an exchange of goals is also plausible. The most consistent theme is the home side's greater strength, with the overall outlook favouring West Ham United while acknowledging that the margin between a controlled win and a more competitive contest may depend on how effectively Charlton Athletic respond.
What matters before kick-off
First EFL Championship home match of the 2026/27 season
West Ham United host Charlton Athletic at a sold-out London Stadium in their first home match of the 2026/27 EFL Championship season.
First league meeting between the clubs since 2007
Charlton Athletic face local rivals West Ham United at London Stadium in their first league meeting since the 2006/07 Premier League campaign.
Team news and debuts for West Ham United
West Ham United handed debuts to new signings Arne Engels and Joël Piroe for the match against Charlton Athletic, while striker Pablo was ruled out with an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.