Derby County — Cardiff City: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.4% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.5% / 68.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Derby County
18th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Charlton 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Sheffield United 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away QPR 3:2
- 21.04.2026 away Norwich 1:2
- 18.04.2026 home Oxford 1:0
Cardiff City
13th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 home Wrexham 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Mansfield 4:5
- 25.04.2026 home Northampton 5:1
- 22.04.2026 home Port Vale 1:0
- 18.04.2026 away Reading 3:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.01.2025 Cardiff City 2:1 Derby County
- 14.09.2024 Derby County 1:0 Cardiff City
- 07.05.2022 Derby County 0:1 Cardiff City
- 01.03.2022 Cardiff City 1:0 Derby County
- 02.03.2021 Cardiff City 4:0 Derby County
- 28.10.2020 Derby County 1:1 Cardiff City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Derby County have a slight but well-supported edge over Cardiff City in this Championship meeting. The overall assessment points towards the hosts being the more likely side to avoid defeat, although the margin between the teams is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Home advantage gives Derby County the stronger platform, while Cardiff City remain capable of making the game competitive.
The match is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking play rather than a highly open encounter. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 to Derby County, and 1:0 to Derby County. Taken together, these possibilities indicate a close match in which Derby County hold the clearer edge, but Cardiff City have a realistic route to a draw.
What matters before kick-off
Derby Injury Concerns
Derby County are dealing with injury setbacks as Derry Murkin is ruled out with a hamstring injury and defender Matthew Clarke is sidelined due to a calf issue.
Cardiff's Opening Result
Cardiff City opened their Championship season with a 1-1 draw against Wrexham thanks to a stoppage-time free-kick from Rubin Colwill.
Head-to-Head Record
Derby County have won only one of their last eight league matches against Cardiff City, though that victory occurred in their previous home meeting in September 2024.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.