Southampton FC — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Southampton FC
22nd place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 28.04.2026 home Ipswich 2:2
- 21.04.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
- 18.04.2026 away Swansea 2:1
Stoke City
21st place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Bristol City 0:2
- 25.04.2026 home Portsmouth 1:3
- 21.04.2026 home Millwall 1:3
- 18.04.2026 away Wrexham 0:2
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Stoke City 0:2 Southampton FC
- 23.08.2025 Southampton FC 1:2 Stoke City
- 27.04.2024 Southampton FC 0:1 Stoke City
- 03.10.2023 Stoke City 0:1 Southampton FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Southampton FC enter this Championship fixture with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Stoke City. The available assessment points towards the hosts being clearly stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this edge should be viewed with some caution rather than as a decisive prediction. Southampton FC are expected to control more of the match, while Stoke City will look to remain compact and make the contest difficult.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with the most plausible outcomes pointing towards a narrow Southampton FC win or a controlled home success. A draw also remains a realistic possibility, and the expectation that both teams will score is evenly balanced. That makes the opening phases important: Southampton FC may need patience to break down Stoke City, while the visitors could find opportunities if they manage to absorb pressure and attack in transition. Overall, the balance favours Southampton FC, but the match profile suggests a competitive encounter rather than a one-sided game.
What matters before kick-off
Opening round results
Both teams started the new Championship season with 2-1 defeats: Southampton lost away to Watford, while Stoke City were beaten by Swansea City.
Squad availability news
Southampton remain without Caspar Jander due to injury. Stoke City are missing defender Aaron Cresswell and forward Lamine Cissé.
Southampton points deduction
Southampton started the Championship season at the bottom of the table on -4 points following a federation sanction.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.