Queens Park Rangers — Bolton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.8% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Queens Park Rangers
1st place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Portsmouth 3:1
- 02.05.2026 away Ipswich 0:3
- 25.04.2026 home Derby 2:3
- 21.04.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 18.04.2026 away Millwall 0:2
Bolton Wanderers
3rd place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Luton 2:3
- 25.04.2026 away Bradford 1:1
- 18.04.2026 home Huddersfield 3:3
- 14.04.2026 home Stevenage 5:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Queens Park Rangers host Bolton Wanderers in a Championship meeting where the assessment gives the home side a slight edge, with high confidence in that overall direction. The balance still points to a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, and the expected character is medium-scoring. Queens Park Rangers may have enough advantage at home to control important phases, but Bolton Wanderers remain capable of keeping the game close and making the outcome difficult to separate.
The projection also treats both teams scoring as finely balanced, so there is no strong basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The most plausible paths are narrow ones, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1 among the likely scorelines. That range reflects a match that could turn on efficiency in the final third or on how well each side manages the periods when the contest becomes more open. Overall, the home side has the clearer edge, but the draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Player Availability Ahead of the Match
Queens Park Rangers are missing Boy Kemper, Nicolas Madsen, Karamoko Dembele, and Amadou Mbengue through injury. Bolton Wanderers are without injured pair Ruben Rodrigues and Luca Stephenson, while Xavier Simons serves a suspension.
Both Teams Won Their Opening Championship Fixtures
Queens Park Rangers kicked off their Championship campaign with a 3-1 victory away at Portsmouth. Bolton Wanderers secured a 2-1 home win against Preston North End in their opening round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.