Wrexham AFC — Southampton FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.1% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Wrexham AFC
19th place · 7 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 away West Ham 0:6
- 08.09.2026 home Burnley 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Swansea 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Millwall 3:0
- 28.08.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
Southampton FC
2nd place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Bristol City 4:1
- 08.09.2026 home Swansea 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Lincoln 1:1
- 01.09.2026 away Birmingham 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Millwall 5:1
This season: Wrexham AFC at home vs Southampton FC away
| Metric | Wrexham AFC · at home | Southampton FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| xG against per match | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 07.04.2026 Wrexham AFC 1:5 Southampton FC
- 09.08.2025 Southampton FC 2:1 Wrexham AFC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Wrexham AFC and Southampton FC meet in the Championship in a contest that looks evenly matched overall. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. That suggests a game likely to be shaped by small details, particularly in how each team manages periods of pressure and responds after conceding.
The match is expected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible outcome, with 1:1 among the plausible scorelines, although 1:2 and 2:1 also reflect the balance of the matchup. The broader signal gives Southampton FC some protection against defeat, creating a slight edge for the visitors without making the result predictable. Wrexham AFC should still have a realistic route to a positive result, especially if they can turn their attacking moments into clear chances.
What matters before kick-off
Heavy defeat for Wrexham
In their previous Championship fixture on 11 September 2026, Wrexham suffered a 6-0 away defeat against West Ham United.
Record defeat of Hollywood era
The 6-0 loss to West Ham United was Wrexham's heaviest defeat since Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney took ownership of the club.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.