Birmingham City — Middlesbrough FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.1% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Birmingham City
11th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Derby 2:1
- 09.09.2026 away Norwich 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Wolves 2:2
- 01.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
- 28.08.2026 away Wrexham 2:1
Middlesbrough FC
4th place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 home Millwall 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Norwich 4:3
- 05.09.2026 away QPR 1:0
- 02.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home West Brom 3:1
This season: Birmingham City at home vs Middlesbrough FC away
| Metric | Birmingham City · at home | Middlesbrough FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–3–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| xG against per match | 1.64 | 0.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.03.2026 Birmingham City 1:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 08.11.2025 Middlesbrough FC 2:1 Birmingham City
- 12.03.2024 Birmingham City 0:1 Middlesbrough FC
- 21.10.2023 Middlesbrough FC 1:0 Birmingham City
- 02.01.2023 Birmingham City 1:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 05.10.2022 Middlesbrough FC 1:0 Birmingham City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Birmingham City and Middlesbrough FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with a moderate level of confidence suggesting that the balance could shift during the match. This points towards a competitive contest in which both teams have credible opportunities to control periods of play.
The game is expected to be high-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That makes a tight draw a realistic possibility, although Middlesbrough FC also have a slight edge in the outcome signal, particularly in scenarios where the match is decided by a narrow margin. Birmingham City should still have enough attacking threat to remain involved, so this is unlikely to be a one-sided encounter. The most plausible score patterns indicate a close game, with either a level result or a narrow win for one of the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results ahead of the clash
Birmingham City enter the match following a 2-1 away victory over Derby County, while Middlesbrough drew 2-2 against Millwall in their previous Championship fixture.
Middlesbrough's winning streak at St Andrew's
Middlesbrough have won on each of their last five visits to St Andrew's Stadium against Birmingham City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.