Stoke City — Sheffield United: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Stoke City
13th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Watford 2:1
- 08.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Charlton 4:0
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Wolves 1:4
Sheffield United
15th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Wolves 0:1
- 08.09.2026 away Blackburn 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Norwich 1:3
- 01.09.2026 home Bolton 3:2
- 29.08.2026 away Cardiff 2:2
This season: Stoke City at home vs Sheffield United away
| Metric | Stoke City · at home | Sheffield United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| xG against per match | 0.81 | 1.34 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.12.2025 Stoke City 1:2 Sheffield United
- 06.12.2025 Sheffield United 4:0 Stoke City
- 25.04.2025 Stoke City 0:2 Sheffield United
- 26.10.2024 Sheffield United 2:0 Stoke City
- 14.01.2023 Sheffield United 3:1 Stoke City
- 08.10.2022 Stoke City 3:1 Sheffield United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stoke City host Sheffield United in a Championship meeting that looks closely balanced on the available indicators. Neither side is given a clear overall advantage, so the match may be decided by small differences in control, efficiency, and how well each team handles key periods. The assessment points to an even contest with moderate confidence rather than a strong directional signal.
The expected scoring level is medium, with plausible outcomes including a 1:1 draw, a narrow 1:0 win for Stoke City, or a 2:1 result. Both teams scoring is considered an open question, which adds uncertainty to the exact shape of the game. The 1X signal gives Stoke City some support through home advantage and the draw, but Sheffield United remain fully competitive in what should be a measured and finely balanced encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Sheffield United EFL Cup exit
Sheffield United head into the fixture following a 1-0 defeat to League Two side Fleetwood Town in the EFL Cup third round in midweek.
Stoke City unbeaten streak
Stoke City enter the match on a four-game unbeaten run across all competitions, having won three of their last four Championship fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.