Cardiff City — Charlton Athletic: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.1% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.8% / 17.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Cardiff City
21st place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Bolton 0:1
- 08.09.2026 home Stoke 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Portsmouth 0:2
- 02.09.2026 away QPR 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Sheffield United 2:2
Charlton Athletic
8th place · 12 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Portsmouth 0:0
- 09.09.2026 home QPR 0:0
- 05.09.2026 away Stoke 0:4
- 02.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Preston 1:0
This season: Cardiff City at home vs Charlton Athletic away
| Metric | Cardiff City · at home | Charlton Athletic · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–3–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.12 | 0.54 |
| xG against per match | 1.40 | 1.85 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.67 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 30.06.2020 Cardiff City 0:0 Charlton Athletic
- 23.11.2019 Charlton Athletic 2:2 Cardiff City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cardiff City have a slight edge over Charlton Athletic in this Championship meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with meaningful uncertainty. The overall assessment does not suggest a dominant home performance; instead, Cardiff City appear marginally better placed to control the match, while Charlton Athletic remain capable of making the game competitive.
The stronger signal is toward an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to score. That points to a match shaped by attacking intent and opportunities at both ends rather than a tightly contained tactical battle. Cardiff City may have the better platform, but Charlton Athletic should have enough threat to challenge them throughout. A narrow home win is one plausible outcome, while a draw also fits the balanced nature of the matchup.
What matters before kick-off
Cardiff City Availability Update
Cardiff City manager Brian Barry-Murphy confirmed that Will Fish, Rubin Colwill, and Isaak Davies miss out through injury, while Dylan Lawlor is back available.
Cardiff City's Winless Campaign
Cardiff City enter the match still looking for their first victory of the 2026-27 Championship campaign, having recorded four draws and three defeats in their opening seven league games.
Charlton Athletic's Defensive Run
Charlton Athletic enter the fixture having registered back-to-back goalless draws in the Championship against Queens Park Rangers and Portsmouth.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.