Burnley FC — Derby County: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.1% / 65.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Burnley FC
24th place · 3 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Swansea 1:3
- 08.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Norwich 1:4
Derby County
22nd place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
- 09.09.2026 home West Brom 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Swansea 0:3
This season: Burnley FC at home vs Derby County away
| Metric | Burnley FC · at home | Derby County · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.07 | 0.55 |
| xG against per match | 1.21 | 1.87 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 08.04.2025 Derby County 0:0 Burnley FC
- 10.12.2024 Burnley FC 0:0 Derby County
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Burnley FC hold a slight but well-supported edge over Derby County in this Championship meeting. The overall assessment points towards the hosts being clearly stronger, although the advantage is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw. The suggested market signal supports Burnley FC avoiding defeat, making the home side the more reliable direction in the matchup.
The game is projected to produce a moderate level of scoring rather than an especially open contest. There is no clear separation on whether both teams will score, so that aspect remains finely balanced. Burnley FC may have the greater control and attacking threat, while Derby County remain capable of contributing to a competitive match. A narrow home victory or a draw appear more consistent with the available assessment than a decisive result for either side.
What matters before kick-off
Burnley's winless start
Burnley enter the fixture at the bottom of the Championship table as the only team in the division yet to win a match after the opening seven rounds.
Derby County's recent form
Derby County head to Turf Moor having recorded just one win alongside five losses this season, arriving off the back of three consecutive Championship defeats.
Head-to-head record
Burnley are unbeaten in their last 15 meetings with Derby County, with the Rams' last victory in this fixture coming back in January 2007.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.