Lincoln City — Swansea City: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.8% |
| 12 | 70.6% | |
| X2 | 69.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Lincoln City
10th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 away Bristol City 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Preston 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
- 01.09.2026 home Blackburn 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Bolton 1:0
Swansea City
3rd place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 08.09.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:0
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
- 29.08.2026 away Derby 3:0
This season: Lincoln City at home vs Swansea City away
| Metric | Lincoln City · at home | Swansea City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.90 | 1.61 |
| xG against per match | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lincoln City and Swansea City meet in the Championship in a contest that looks closely balanced. The available assessment describes the teams as evenly matched, with moderate confidence in that reading. Neither side is given a decisive advantage, so the match may be shaped by small tactical details, particularly how well each team manages transitions and sustains pressure in midfield.
The scoring outlook points toward a medium-scoring game, although whether both teams find the net remains difficult to separate. A draw is a realistic possibility, while Swansea City hold a slight edge in the broader outcome assessment because the away side is favoured to avoid defeat. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting a match that could remain competitive throughout rather than develop into a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Lincoln City's unbeaten run
Lincoln City extended their unbeaten run in the Championship to five matches with a 1-0 midweek victory away at Bristol City, sealed by a second-half goal from Freddie Draper.
Swansea City's recent result
Swansea City entered the fixture on the back of a 3-1 Championship win over Burnley, with goals scored by Adam Idah, Moussa Yeo and Zan Vipotnik.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.