Wrexham AFC — Preston North End: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
54.8%
Home win
Wrexham AFC
X
24.9%
Draw
W2
20.3%
Away win
Preston North End
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X79.7%
Both teams to score
Yes52.8%
Totals 2.5
Over51.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.7% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.9% / 48.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Goal distribution model
Wrexham AFC × Preston North End
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.1%
0:1
5.6%
0:2
3.1%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.5%
1:1
11.9%
1:2
5.5%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.9%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.8%
3:1
5.8%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.6%
4:1
2.5%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
0.9%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.9%
1:010.5%
2:09.9%
2:19.8%
0:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Wrexham AFC
14th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Southampton 2:1
- 11.09.2026 away West Ham 0:6
- 08.09.2026 home Burnley 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Swansea 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Millwall 3:0
Preston North End
23rd place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away QPR 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 08.09.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home Blackburn 2:1
- 01.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:3
This season: Wrexham AFC at home vs Preston North End away
| Metric | Wrexham AFC · at home | Preston North End · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.31 | 1.45 |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 1.39 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Wrexham AFC wins1
Draws1
Preston North End wins0
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 29.12.2025 Wrexham AFC 2:1 Preston North End
- 06.12.2025 Preston North End 1:1 Wrexham AFC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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