Swansea City — West Ham United: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
25.8%
Home win
Swansea City
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
49.5%
Away win
West Ham United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.3%
Both teams to score
Yes59.8%
Totals 2.5
Over58.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.5% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Goal distribution model
Swansea City × West Ham United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.6%
0:1
7.9%
0:2
7.7%
0:3
4.6%
0:4
2.1%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
5.3%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
5.7%
1:4
2.6%
1:5
0.9%
2
2:0
3.7%
2:1
6.7%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
1.5%
3:1
2.7%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
1:29.6%
0:17.9%
0:27.7%
2:16.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Swansea City
1st place · 17 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Lincoln 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 08.09.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:0
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
West Ham United
2nd place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Millwall 2:2
- 11.09.2026 home Wrexham 6:0
- 08.09.2026 away Bolton 3:2
- 05.09.2026 home Derby 3:0
- 01.09.2026 home Wolves 4:2
This season: Swansea City at home vs West Ham United away
| Metric | Swansea City · at home | West Ham United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–0 | 1–3–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.67 | 1.58 |
| xG against per match | 1.18 | 2.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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