Derby County — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
37.6%
Home win
Derby County
X
28.4%
Draw
W2
34.0%
Away win
Stoke City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.6%
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
Totals 2.5
Under53.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Goal distribution model
Derby County × Stoke City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.7%
0:1
8.8%
0:2
6.0%
0:3
2.5%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
9.5%
1:1
13.6%
1:2
7.8%
1:3
3.2%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.7%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.9%
3:1
3.6%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.0%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.6%
1:09.5%
0:18.8%
0:08.7%
2:18.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Derby County
22nd place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
- 09.09.2026 home West Brom 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
Stoke City
8th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Sheffield United 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Watford 2:1
- 08.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Charlton 4:0
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
This season: Derby County at home vs Stoke City away
| Metric | Derby County · at home | Stoke City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| xG against per match | 2.13 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 8.25 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Derby County wins3
Draws1
Stoke City wins2
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 06.04.2026 Derby County 2:0 Stoke City
- 09.08.2025 Stoke City 3:1 Derby County
- 03.05.2025 Derby County 0:0 Stoke City
- 02.11.2024 Stoke City 2:1 Derby County
- 30.12.2021 Stoke City 1:2 Derby County
- 18.09.2021 Derby County 2:1 Stoke City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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