Southampton FC — Bolton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
66.8%
Home win
Southampton FC
X
19.1%
Draw
W2
14.1%
Away win
Bolton Wanderers
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X85.9%
Both teams to score
Yes57.7%
Totals 2.5
Over65.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.9% |
| 12 | 80.9% | |
| X2 | 33.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Goal distribution model
Southampton FC × Bolton Wanderers
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
3.0%
0:2
1.8%
0:3
0.6%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.7%
1:1
8.8%
1:2
4.1%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.7%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.6%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
4.4%
4:1
4.4%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.1%
5:1
2.1%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.7%
2:09.7%
1:18.8%
1:07.7%
3:17.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Southampton FC
4th place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Bristol City 4:1
- 08.09.2026 home Swansea 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Lincoln 1:1
- 01.09.2026 away Birmingham 1:1
Bolton Wanderers
15th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Norwich 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Cardiff 1:0
- 08.09.2026 home West Ham 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Millwall 0:4
- 01.09.2026 away Sheffield United 2:3
This season: Southampton FC at home vs Bolton Wanderers away
| Metric | Southampton FC · at home | Bolton Wanderers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.11 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 1.37 | 1.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.25 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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