Birmingham City — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.1%
Home win
Birmingham City
X
25.7%
Draw
W2
26.1%
Away win
Queens Park Rangers
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.3%
Both teams to score
Yes55.5%
Totals 2.5
Over52.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Goal distribution model
Birmingham City × Queens Park Rangers
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.8%
0:1
6.5%
0:2
4.1%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.5%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
6.7%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.3%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.5%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
1:09.5%
2:19.5%
2:08.3%
0:06.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Birmingham City
11th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Derby 2:1
- 09.09.2026 away Norwich 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Wolves 2:2
- 01.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
Queens Park Rangers
7th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Preston 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
- 09.09.2026 away Charlton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 0:1
- 02.09.2026 home Cardiff 2:1
This season: Birmingham City at home vs Queens Park Rangers away
| Metric | Birmingham City · at home | Queens Park Rangers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–4–0 | 2–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.54 | 1.29 |
| xG against per match | 1.76 | 1.20 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 5.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Birmingham City wins3
Draws1
Queens Park Rangers wins2
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 11.03.2026 Birmingham City 1:0 Queens Park Rangers
- 09.12.2025 Queens Park Rangers 2:1 Birmingham City
- 29.03.2024 Queens Park Rangers 2:1 Birmingham City
- 22.09.2023 Birmingham City 0:0 Queens Park Rangers
- 18.03.2023 Queens Park Rangers 0:1 Birmingham City
- 28.10.2022 Birmingham City 2:0 Queens Park Rangers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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