Wrexham AFC — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 70.8% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Wrexham AFC
15th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Watford 1:1
- 17.08.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
- 26.04.2026 away Coventry 1:3
- 21.04.2026 away Oxford 1:0
Birmingham City
14th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Sheffield United 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Portsmouth 1:1
- 25.04.2026 home Bristol City 2:1
- 22.04.2026 home Preston 2:1
This season: Wrexham AFC at home vs Birmingham City away
| Metric | Wrexham AFC · at home | Birmingham City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.92 | 0.76 |
| xG against per match | 0.65 | 0.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Birmingham City 2:0 Wrexham AFC
- 03.10.2025 Wrexham AFC 1:1 Birmingham City
- 23.01.2025 Wrexham AFC 1:1 Birmingham City
- 16.09.2024 Birmingham City 3:1 Wrexham AFC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Wrexham AFC host Birmingham City in the Championship on 28 August 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 19:00 UTC. The assessment gives Wrexham AFC a slight but well-supported edge, although the gap between the teams is not presented as decisive. Home advantage is the main factor behind the preference for the hosts, while Birmingham City remain competitive within this outlook.
The match is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking activity rather than an extreme goal total. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0, reflecting a contest that may stay close throughout. Overall, Wrexham AFC are favoured to avoid defeat, but Birmingham City have a realistic chance of taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Both teams started the Championship season with back-to-back draws
Wrexham opened their league campaign with 1-1 draws against Cardiff City and Watford. Birmingham City also recorded two draws, playing 0-0 against Sheffield United and 2-2 against Bristol City.
Birmingham City suffered heavy EFL Cup defeat prior to match
Ahead of their Championship fixture against Wrexham, Birmingham City fell 6-1 at home to Premier League side Brentford in the second round of the EFL Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.