Bristol City — Portsmouth FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.5% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Bristol City
20th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 15.08.2026 home Millwall 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Stoke 2:0
- 25.04.2026 away Birmingham 1:2
- 21.04.2026 away Southampton 2:2
Portsmouth FC
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Lincoln 3:1
- 15.08.2026 home QPR 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Birmingham 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Stoke 3:1
- 21.04.2026 away Coventry 1:5
This season: Bristol City at home vs Portsmouth FC away
| Metric | Bristol City · at home | Portsmouth FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.52 | 1.21 |
| xG against per match | 3.40 | 2.33 |
| Shots on target per match | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 01.01.2026 Bristol City 5:0 Portsmouth FC
- 29.11.2025 Portsmouth FC 0:1 Bristol City
- 29.12.2024 Bristol City 3:0 Portsmouth FC
- 07.12.2024 Portsmouth FC 3:0 Bristol City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bristol City host Portsmouth FC in the Championship on 29 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the home side a slight edge. The confidence behind that view is moderate rather than decisive, so the match appears finely balanced, with Bristol City holding a small advantage through home conditions rather than a clear separation in quality.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while the chance of both teams finding the net is difficult to distinguish from the alternative. That leaves several plausible match patterns: a controlled Bristol City win, a narrow contest decided by one goal, or a draw if Portsmouth FC can match the hosts' attacking threat. Scores such as 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 reflect that balance. Overall, the assessment points toward protection against an away win, while recognising that the margin between the teams is limited.
What matters before kick-off
Recent team results
Bristol City enter the match following a 2-2 draw with Birmingham City, while Portsmouth secured a 3-1 away victory against Lincoln City in their previous Championship fixture.
Portsmouth injury absentees
Portsmouth winger Josh Murphy is sidelined after suffering a groin injury. The visitors' list of absentees also includes Connor Ogilvie, Keshi Anderson, and goalkeeper Josef Bursik.
Adam Randell returns for Bristol City
Bristol City midfielder Adam Randell is available for selection again after serving a one-match suspension.
Head-to-head history at Ashton Gate
In their previous meeting at Ashton Gate last season, Bristol City secured a dominant 5-0 win over Portsmouth.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.