Southampton FC — Millwall FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.8% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Southampton FC
11th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Stoke 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 28.04.2026 home Ipswich 2:2
- 21.04.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
Millwall FC
1st place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Norwich 3:0
- 15.08.2026 away Bristol City 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Oxford 2:0
- 24.04.2026 away Leicester 1:1
- 21.04.2026 away Stoke 3:1
This season: Southampton FC at home vs Millwall FC away
| Metric | Southampton FC · at home | Millwall FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.32 | 3.40 |
| xG against per match | 0.93 | 0.52 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 01.01.2026 Southampton FC 0:0 Millwall FC
- 29.11.2025 Millwall FC 3:2 Southampton FC
- 24.02.2024 Southampton FC 1:2 Millwall FC
- 04.11.2023 Millwall FC 0:1 Southampton FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Southampton FC host Millwall FC in the Championship on 29 August 2026. The assessment gives Southampton FC a slight edge, with the home side better positioned to avoid defeat. The teams are not separated by a wide margin, however, so Millwall FC remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can maintain pressure away from home.
A medium-scoring match is expected, with both teams likely to score. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, indicating a game that could remain closely balanced while still offering Southampton FC opportunities to take control. Overall, the signal favours Southampton FC or a draw, rather than a clear-cut home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Cup fixtures
Ahead of this clash, both teams were in midweek EFL Cup action: Southampton suffered a 4-1 loss to West Ham, while Millwall secured a 1-0 victory over Cambridge United.
Taylor Harwood-Bellis left out
Southampton manager Tonda Eckert confirmed defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis was omitted from the squad again amidst ongoing transfer speculation surrounding his future.
Millwall's strong league start
Millwall entered matchday three of the Championship having won both of their opening league games against Bristol City (2-0) and Norwich City (3-0) without conceding a single goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.