Wolverhampton Wanderers — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.8% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 38.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers
5th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 14.08.2026 home Blackburn 2:2
- 24.05.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Fulham 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Brighton 0:3
Stoke City
23rd place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 15.08.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Bristol City 0:2
- 25.04.2026 home Portsmouth 1:3
- 21.04.2026 home Millwall 1:3
This season: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home vs Stoke City away
| Metric | Wolverhampton Wanderers · at home | Stoke City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.97 | 0.93 |
| xG against per match | 0.84 | 2.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers approach this Championship meeting with a clear advantage in the overall assessment, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Stoke City remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can keep the match balanced and limit the hosts’ opportunities. The available scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring game rather than an open shootout.
The most likely scenarios include a controlled Wolverhampton Wanderers victory, with 2:0 and 2:1 among the projected scorelines, while 1:1 is also considered plausible. That reflects a match in which the hosts have the stronger position but may not find it easy to separate themselves. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the central expectation is a home advantage combined with some uncertainty over the exact pattern of goals.
What matters before kick-off
Team form heading into the fixture
Wolverhampton Wanderers remain unbeaten in all four competitive fixtures this season, registering three wins and a draw. Meanwhile, Stoke City lost both of their opening Championship matches and were eliminated from the Carabao Cup in midweek.
Wolves availability updates
Wolverhampton Wanderers defender Santiago Bueno has returned to availability ahead of the Stoke City match. However, Yerson Mosquera, Kieran Trippier, and Rafiki Said remain sidelined due to injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.