Derby County — Swansea City: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.1% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Derby County
17th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Cardiff 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Charlton 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Sheffield United 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away QPR 3:2
- 21.04.2026 away Norwich 1:2
Swansea City
10th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Sheffield United 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Stoke 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Charlton 3:1
- 25.04.2026 away Norwich 1:1
- 21.04.2026 away QPR 2:1
This season: Derby County at home vs Swansea City away
| Metric | Derby County · at home | Swansea City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.62 | 0.62 |
| xG against per match | 1.98 | 0.65 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Derby County 2:0 Swansea City
- 25.11.2025 Swansea City 1:2 Derby County
- 05.04.2025 Swansea City 1:0 Derby County
- 27.11.2024 Derby County 1:2 Swansea City
- 09.04.2022 Swansea City 2:1 Derby County
- 02.10.2021 Derby County 0:0 Swansea City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Derby County and Swansea City meet in a Championship fixture that looks closely balanced on the available indicators. The overall assessment is one of evenly matched teams, with moderate confidence, so the contest may be decided by small differences in control, efficiency and defensive concentration rather than a clear gap in quality.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a game with opportunities at both ends without pointing to an especially open encounter. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, making the attacking balance another uncertain aspect of the match. Derby County have a slight practical advantage in the market signal, which supports the possibility of a home win or draw, but Swansea City remain fully capable of keeping the result level or taking advantage of any mistakes. A measured approach from both sides could therefore be important, particularly during the opening stages when neither team will want to concede control.
What matters before kick-off
Swansea City squad news
Swansea City captain Ben Cabango misses the match against Derby County due to a heel injury.
Derby County squad absences
Derby County defenders Matt Clarke and Derry Murkin miss the fixture due to injury.
Early season form
Swansea City enter the match undefeated in the league following a win over Stoke City and a draw against Sheffield United, while Derby County are still seeking their first win of the campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.