Wolverhampton Wanderers — West Bromwich Albion: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.6% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.75 → now 1.83 |
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.10 |
Match preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers have a slight but well-supported edge over West Bromwich Albion in this Championship meeting. The assessment points toward the home side avoiding defeat, with the balance of the matchup favouring Wolverhampton Wanderers while still leaving room for a draw. West Bromwich Albion remain capable of making the contest competitive, so the outlook is not one-sided.
A medium-scoring game is expected, with both teams scoring treated as an evenly balanced possibility rather than a strong tendency. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: a level result such as 1-1 sits alongside narrow home victories by 1-0 or 2-1. Overall, Wolverhampton Wanderers appear better placed, but the measured expectation is for a close match in which West Bromwich Albion can stay involved.
What matters before kick-off
Derby team news
Wolverhampton Wanderers forward Raul Jimenez misses the match due to a knee injury sustained in the Carabao Cup. West Bromwich Albion right-back Nolan Galves is out with a knee injury, while Mikey Johnson remains sidelined with an ankle issue.
Recent form context
Wolverhampton Wanderers enter the game following a mid-week 1-0 Carabao Cup defeat at Everton. West Bromwich Albion carry a four-match unbeaten Championship run into the derby after drawing 1-1 against QPR last weekend.
Away fans return to Molineux
The derby marks the first league fixture between Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Bromwich Albion at Molineux with visiting fans present in 14 years.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.