Millwall FC — Norwich City: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.2% / 7.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.5% / 22.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.8% / 70.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Millwall FC
2nd place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Bristol City 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Oxford 2:0
- 24.04.2026 away Leicester 1:1
- 21.04.2026 away Stoke 3:1
- 18.04.2026 home QPR 2:0
Norwich City
20th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home West Brom 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Hull 1:2
- 25.04.2026 home Swansea 1:1
- 21.04.2026 home Derby 2:1
- 18.04.2026 away Bristol City 4:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.04.2026 Millwall FC 1:2 Norwich City
- 09.08.2025 Norwich City 1:2 Millwall FC
- 21.04.2025 Millwall FC 3:1 Norwich City
- 26.12.2024 Norwich City 2:1 Millwall FC
- 29.12.2023 Millwall FC 1:0 Norwich City
- 20.08.2023 Norwich City 3:1 Millwall FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Millwall FC and Norwich City appear evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear overall advantage, with the visitors also close enough in strength to make the contest difficult to separate. Confidence in this reading is moderate, so the match may be shaped by small tactical or individual moments rather than a sustained difference between the sides.
The scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring game, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:2 among the likely scorelines. That range reflects a balanced contest in which either team could edge the result, while a draw remains a credible outcome. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, so the match does not present a strong signal in that area. Overall, the 1X market signal leans slightly towards Millwall FC avoiding defeat, but Norwich City remain well placed to compete for a positive result.
What matters before kick-off
Millwall's opening result
Millwall started their new Championship campaign with a 2-0 victory against Bristol City thanks to a brace from Josh Coburn.
Norwich City's opening result
Norwich City suffered a 2-1 home defeat to West Bromwich Albion in their opening league match of the season at Carrow Road.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.