Birmingham City — Bristol City: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.0% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Birmingham City
16th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Sheffield United 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Portsmouth 1:1
- 25.04.2026 home Bristol City 2:1
- 22.04.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 18.04.2026 away Hull 1:1
Bristol City
24th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Millwall 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Stoke 2:0
- 25.04.2026 away Birmingham 1:2
- 21.04.2026 away Southampton 2:2
- 18.04.2026 home Norwich 2:4
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Birmingham City 2:1 Bristol City
- 25.10.2025 Bristol City 1:0 Birmingham City
- 29.12.2023 Birmingham City 0:0 Bristol City
- 19.08.2023 Bristol City 0:2 Birmingham City
- 14.01.2023 Bristol City 4:2 Birmingham City
- 08.10.2022 Birmingham City 3:0 Bristol City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Birmingham City host Bristol City in a Championship match that looks finely balanced, with a slight edge for the home side. The available assessment points towards Birmingham City having the stronger position, but the low confidence level suggests that the difference between the teams is limited rather than decisive. Home advantage may be relevant, although Bristol City should remain competitive throughout the match.
The game is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, with both teams scoring viewed as an even possibility. That leaves several plausible developments, from a closely contested 1:1 draw to a narrow Birmingham City victory by 1:0 or 2:0. The main expectation is therefore for a match in which Birmingham City have a modest advantage, but Bristol City have a realistic chance of preventing the hosts from turning that edge into a clear result.
What matters before kick-off
Suspensions and injuries for Bristol City
Bristol City midfielder Adam Randell is suspended following his red card against Millwall. Defender Cam Pring is a doubt due to a minor injury, while Luke McNally remains sidelined long-term.
Recent competitive results for both sides
Birmingham City opened their Championship season with a 0-0 draw away at Sheffield United, while Bristol City suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Millwall.
Cochrane back available for Birmingham
Birmingham City defender Alex Cochrane has recovered from a back issue and is available for selection.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.