Match intelligence

WKW ETO FC Gyor — Riga FC: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
WKW ETO FC Gyor1
:
1Riga FC
Locked signal 1X Probability 66.9% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 42.2% Home win WKW ETO FC Gyor
X 24.7% Draw
W2 33.1% Away win Riga FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1275.2%
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
Totals 2.5
Over56.2%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X63.9%
1275.2%
X261.0%
Both teams to scoreYes/No59.3% / 40.7%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.6% / 5.4%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.2% / 20.8%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 56.2% / 43.8%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 33.8% / 66.2%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 17.4% / 82.6%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.7% / 92.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

WKW ETO FC Gyor × Riga FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.4%
0:1 7.5%
0:2 5.5%
0:3 2.6%
0:4 0.9%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 7.9%
1:1 11.6%
1:2 8.2%
1:3 3.9%
1:4 1.4%
1:5 0.4%
2
2:0 6.0%
2:1 8.6%
2:2 6.1%
2:3 2.9%
2:4 1.1%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 3.0%
3:1 4.3%
3:2 3.1%
3:3 1.5%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 1.1%
4:1 1.6%
4:2 1.2%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.3%
5:1 0.5%
5:2 0.3%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.6%
2:18.6%
1:28.2%
1:07.9%
0:17.5%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

WKW ETO FC Gyor and Riga FC meet in the UEFA Conference League Qualification with the outlook pointing to an evenly matched contest. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight edge in the result market, but the confidence is moderate rather than decisive. That suggests the match may be shaped by small tactical details, with neither side holding a clearly established advantage.

The scoring expectation is medium, while the prospect of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. WKW ETO FC Gyor may look to make use of home conditions and build pressure through a controlled approach, whereas Riga FC should remain competitive if they manage the tempo and avoid giving the hosts space in promising areas. A draw is a realistic possibility, although a narrow home victory also fits the overall picture. The central theme is balance, with the game likely to remain open enough for chances at both ends without pointing to a high-scoring encounter.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

First Leg Result

In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round on August 6, 2026, Riga FC defeated ETO FC Győr 1-0 at Skonto Stadions.

Match fact

Second Leg Match Officials

The second leg takes place at ETO Park in Győr, with Finnish referee Oliver Reitala appointed to officiate the match.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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