FC Sion — FC Noah Yerevan: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.9% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.7% / 61.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Sion enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution. FC Noah Yerevan will need to remain disciplined and limit the hosts’ space, particularly in the areas where FC Sion can build sustained pressure. The overall outlook points towards a medium-scoring contest rather than an open goal festival.
The balance of the assessment favours FC Sion, with the home side expected to have more control and create the better chances over the course of the match. FC Noah Yerevan still have a credible route into the game if they defend compactly and make effective use of their opportunities in transition. Both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, so the main question is whether the visitors can contribute enough offensively to unsettle the hosts. A controlled FC Sion performance appears the more likely pattern.
What matters before kick-off
Draw in the first qualifying leg
The first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round between FC Noah and FC Sion on August 6, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw.
Red cards in the first leg
In the first leg, FC Sion defender Nias Hefti was sent off in the 26th minute, while FC Noah's Stone Mambo received a red card in the 64th minute.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.