Motherwell FC — HJK Helsinki: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.1% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Motherwell FC have a slight edge over HJK Helsinki in this UEFA Conference League qualification meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment places the hosts marginally ahead, but the match profile leaves room for several different outcomes.
The game is expected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring regarded as an evenly balanced possibility. That makes the opening stages important: Motherwell FC may look to use home advantage to establish control, while HJK Helsinki should remain competitive if they can limit the hosts’ opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0, reflecting a narrow range between a draw and a controlled home victory.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg draw in Helsinki
The first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round tie between HJK Helsinki and Motherwell ended in a 1-1 draw in Finland. Tawanda Maswanhise put Motherwell ahead from the penalty spot before Teemu Pukki equalised for HJK.
Domestic league results before second leg
Ahead of the return leg, Motherwell drew 0-0 at home against Falkirk in the Scottish Premiership. Meanwhile, HJK Helsinki secured a 1-0 away victory against AC Oulu in the Veikkausliiga.
Motherwell squad availability update
Winger Ibrahim Said, who missed the first leg in Finland due to visa issues, is available for Motherwell ahead of the second leg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.