Shelbourne FC — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 20.7% |
| 12 | 86.7% | |
| X2 | 92.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Shelbourne FC face Ajax Amsterdam in the UEFA Conference League qualification round, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. Ajax Amsterdam are judged to be the stronger side, and the high confidence behind that view suggests Shelbourne FC will need a disciplined defensive performance to keep the contest close. The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than develop into a tightly controlled encounter.
The scoring outlook points towards goals at both ends being possible, but there is no strong indication either way on whether both teams will score. The most likely scorelines all favour Ajax Amsterdam and range from a controlled away win to a more emphatic result. Shelbourne FC's main task will be to limit the visitors' attacking opportunities and remain competitive for as long as possible, while Ajax Amsterdam will look to establish control and convert their superiority into a decisive first-leg position.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Ajax secured a 3-1 victory over Shelbourne in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League third qualifying round tie.
Limited stadium capacity
The second leg is held at Tolka Park, which accommodates only 4,343 spectators, with 370 tickets allocated to visiting Ajax supporters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.