HNK Hajduk Split — Vilnius FK Zalgiris: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 84.2% | |
| X2 | 27.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
HNK Hajduk Split enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie with a clear advantage according to the available assessment. The hosts are clearly stronger, and the high confidence behind that view points toward HNK Hajduk Split taking the initiative from the opening stages. Their main task will be to turn that superiority into consistent pressure and chances while limiting Vilnius FK Zalgiris’ opportunities to remain competitive.
Vilnius FK Zalgiris should not be dismissed, particularly because the assessment points toward a potentially high-scoring contest. The expectation that both teams scoring is a coin flip reflects some uncertainty around the visitors’ attacking contribution, rather than a firm conclusion either way. Overall, the balance strongly favours HNK Hajduk Split, with controlled home pressure and a composed defensive display likely to be important. Scorelines such as 2:0, 1:0, or 3:0 fit the available outlook, but the match still needs to be settled on the pitch.
What matters before kick-off
Hajduk Split secured a 5-2 lead against Žalgiris in the first leg
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round on August 6, 2026, Hajduk Split defeated FK Žalgiris 5-2 in Vilnius.
Žalgiris head coach Andrius Skerla previewed the second leg in Split
Ahead of the return leg against Hajduk Split, Žalgiris head coach Andrius Skerla highlighted the need for a balanced approach between attacking and defending at Poljud Stadium.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.