FC St. Gallen 1879 — FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.0% |
| 12 | 86.2% | |
| X2 | 24.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC St. Gallen 1879 enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The outlook favours the hosts, with a high level of confidence behind that evaluation. The scoring profile also points towards an open match rather than a tightly controlled contest, suggesting that FC St. Gallen 1879 should look to impose pressure and create a regular flow of chances.
FC Sheriff Tiraspol nevertheless retain a meaningful attacking presence in the overall forecast, as the possibility of both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced. That makes the visitors’ response an important factor, particularly if they can withstand the initial pressure and find space in transition. The most plausible scorelines point to a home victory, ranging from a controlled win to a more open result, with 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 among the likely outcomes. The central expectation remains a strong performance from FC St. Gallen 1879, but not one that removes all uncertainty from the match.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
FC St. Gallen secured a 3-1 away victory against FC Sheriff Tiraspol in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League third qualifying round tie on August 6, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.