NSI Runavik — FC Lugano: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 32.4% |
| 12 | 82.5% | |
| X2 | 85.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.9% / 33.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.2% / 54.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NSI Runavik face FC Lugano in the UEFA Conference League qualification, with the visitors holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment points to FC Lugano as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. NSI Runavik will need an organised defensive display and an effective approach in possession to keep the contest balanced.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find opportunities in attack. That could suit FC Lugano if they are able to impose their quality and maintain pressure, but it also leaves room for NSI Runavik to contribute on the scoresheet. The central expectation is therefore an advantage for FC Lugano in a game where NSI Runavik remain capable of making the tie competitive.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg advantage for FC Lugano
FC Lugano enters the second leg of the qualification tie with a 2–0 aggregate lead after defeating NSÍ Runavík in the first leg on 6 August 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.