Match intelligence

Tromsoe IL — FC CFR 1907 Cluj: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Tromsoe IL2
:
1FC CFR 1907 Cluj
Locked signal W1 Probability 65.1% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 65.1% Home win Tromsoe IL
X 20.1% Draw
W2 14.8% Away win FC CFR 1907 Cluj
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X85.2%
Both teams to score
Yes51.2%
Totals 2.5
Over56.7%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X85.2%
1279.9%
X234.9%
Both teams to scoreYes/No51.2% / 48.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.7% / 5.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.5% / 20.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 56.7% / 43.3%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 34.3% / 65.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 17.8% / 82.2%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.0% / 92.0%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Tromsoe IL × FC CFR 1907 Cluj
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.3%
0:1 4.5%
0:2 2.0%
0:3 0.6%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 10.7%
1:1 9.5%
1:2 4.2%
1:3 1.2%
1:4 0.3%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 11.2%
2:1 9.9%
2:2 4.3%
2:3 1.3%
2:4 0.3%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 7.8%
3:1 6.8%
3:2 3.0%
3:3 0.9%
3:4 0.2%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 4.1%
4:1 3.6%
4:2 1.6%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 1.7%
5:1 1.5%
5:2 0.6%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.2%
1:010.7%
2:19.9%
1:19.5%
3:07.8%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Tromsoe IL host FC CFR 1907 Cluj in the UEFA Conference League, Qualification, with the match scheduled for 13 August 2026. The available assessment gives Tromsoe IL a moderate but clear advantage, suggesting that the home side has the stronger overall outlook. That edge should be interpreted with some caution, as the confidence is not at the highest level and the tie could still be shaped by the way both teams approach the match.

The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:0, 2:0 and 2:1 among the most likely scorelines. This points to a contest in which Tromsoe IL may create enough pressure to control the key phases, while FC CFR 1907 Cluj remain capable of making the match competitive. The expectation that both teams score is finely balanced, so there is no decisive indication that either a clean sheet or goals at both ends should be assumed. Overall, the analysis favours Tromsoe IL, but a measured reading points to a potentially close qualification match rather than an emphatic outcome.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

First leg result

Tromsoe secured a 5-0 away victory in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League third qualifying round tie against CFR Cluj on August 6, 2026.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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