FC Nordsjaelland — Valur Reykjavik: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.7% |
| 12 | 94.4% | |
| X2 | 7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.8% / 1.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Nordsjaelland enter this UEFA Conference League qualification match as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence in the home outcome. The attacking outlook is also positive, as the available assessment points towards a high-scoring contest. That combination gives FC Nordsjaelland the stronger overall profile, particularly in a match where they are expected to take control and create the better opportunities.
Valur Reykjavik should still be considered capable of contributing to the game, but the assessment does not identify a clear expectation that both teams will score; that remains evenly balanced. The most likely scorelines point to a comfortable FC Nordsjaelland victory, with outcomes such as 3-0, 4-0 or 2-0 indicating a potential margin if the home side converts its chances. The key question is therefore less about which team has the edge and more about how efficiently FC Nordsjaelland can turn its superiority into goals.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round, FC Nordsjaelland secured a 2-0 victory against Valur in Reykjavik.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.