Willem II Tilburg — SC Heerenveen: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.5% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 76.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.9% / 33.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Willem II Tilburg
16th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:4
- 08.08.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:4
- 18.05.2025 away NAC Breda 1:1
- 14.05.2025 home Zwolle 1:2
- 09.05.2025 home Heracles 1:2
SC Heerenveen
11th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Zwolle 0:2
- 16.08.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 09.08.2026 home Twente 1:0
- 17.05.2026 home Ajax 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away NAC Breda 0:2
This season: Willem II Tilburg at home vs SC Heerenveen away
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg · at home | SC Heerenveen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.43 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 2.99 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2025 SC Heerenveen 3:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 08.12.2024 Willem II Tilburg 1:2 SC Heerenveen
- 05.03.2022 Willem II Tilburg 0:0 SC Heerenveen
- 21.11.2021 SC Heerenveen 2:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 13.03.2021 Willem II Tilburg 3:1 SC Heerenveen
- 12.09.2020 SC Heerenveen 2:0 Willem II Tilburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg face SC Heerenveen in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives SC Heerenveen a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the difference between the sides is not decisive. Willem II Tilburg should still have opportunities to make an impact, particularly in a match expected to feature an attacking approach from both teams.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the game less suited to a cautious, low-tempo interpretation and places emphasis on how well each side manages transitions and defensive moments after losing possession. The most plausible scorelines include 1:2 and 1:1, while 0:2 is also among the leading possibilities. Overall, SC Heerenveen appear marginally better placed, but Willem II Tilburg remain capable of keeping the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
Willem II list Thomas Didillon, Jari Schuurman, Amine Lachkar, Anass Zarrouk, Armin Culum, and Lasse Abildgaard as unavailable. SC Heerenveen are without Marcus Linday and Mats Egbring.
Early season form
Willem II are seeking their first points of the Eredivisie season following back-to-back losses. SC Heerenveen have taken four points from three games, including a 1-0 win over FC Twente and a 2-2 draw with Ajax.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.