Willem II Tilburg — SC Heerenveen: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.5% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 76.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.9% / 33.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg face SC Heerenveen in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives SC Heerenveen a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the difference between the sides is not decisive. Willem II Tilburg should still have opportunities to make an impact, particularly in a match expected to feature an attacking approach from both teams.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the game less suited to a cautious, low-tempo interpretation and places emphasis on how well each side manages transitions and defensive moments after losing possession. The most plausible scorelines include 1:2 and 1:1, while 0:2 is also among the leading possibilities. Overall, SC Heerenveen appear marginally better placed, but Willem II Tilburg remain capable of keeping the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
Willem II list Thomas Didillon, Jari Schuurman, Amine Lachkar, Anass Zarrouk, Armin Culum, and Lasse Abildgaard as unavailable. SC Heerenveen are without Marcus Linday and Mats Egbring.
Early season form
Willem II are seeking their first points of the Eredivisie season following back-to-back losses. SC Heerenveen have taken four points from three games, including a 1-0 win over FC Twente and a 2-2 draw with Ajax.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.