PEC Zwolle — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.4% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
PEC Zwolle
14th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Heerenveen 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Twente 1:3
- 09.08.2026 home Ajax 0:2
- 17.05.2026 home Feyenoord 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away For Sittard 2:3
NEC Nijmegen
8th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Excelsior 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Willem II 4:1
- 08.08.2026 home Telstar 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Groningen 1:2
This season: PEC Zwolle at home vs NEC Nijmegen away
| Metric | PEC Zwolle · at home | NEC Nijmegen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.59 | 2.99 |
| xG against per match | 1.54 | 1.43 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.01.2026 NEC Nijmegen 2:1 PEC Zwolle
- 25.10.2025 PEC Zwolle 2:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 11.01.2025 PEC Zwolle 0:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 24.08.2024 NEC Nijmegen 1:0 PEC Zwolle
- 14.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen 2:2 PEC Zwolle
- 09.12.2023 PEC Zwolle 1:3 NEC Nijmegen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
PEC Zwolle host NEC Nijmegen in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards a competitive but open contest. The assessment gives NEC Nijmegen a slight edge, while the overall confidence in that reading is high. That advantage is not strong enough to remove the possibility of a draw, with the match profile also leaving room for PEC Zwolle to remain involved throughout.
The scoring outlook is notably positive, with both teams likely to score and the game considered high-scoring. The leading scorelines reflect that balance: 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2. This suggests PEC Zwolle have a credible route to an equaliser or a share of the points, but NEC Nijmegen are marginally better placed in the overall outcome assessment. The most consistent interpretation is therefore a match where attacking contributions from both sides are expected, with NEC Nijmegen holding the narrower side of the advantage.
What matters before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen eliminated from Champions League qualifying
On Tuesday, 25 August, NEC Nijmegen were defeated 3-0 by Norwegian side Bodø/Glimt in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off tie, concluding their qualification campaign.
Perr Schuurs returns to NEC matchday squad
NEC defender Perr Schuurs has recovered from a long-term knee injury suffered in 2023 and is named in the matchday squad to face PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle secured first win of the season
In their previous Eredivisie fixture on 22 August, PEC Zwolle earned their first victory of the campaign with a 2-0 away win against sc Heerenveen courtesy of goals from Nick Viergever and Koen Kostons.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.