PEC Zwolle — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.4% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PEC Zwolle host NEC Nijmegen in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards a competitive but open contest. The assessment gives NEC Nijmegen a slight edge, while the overall confidence in that reading is high. That advantage is not strong enough to remove the possibility of a draw, with the match profile also leaving room for PEC Zwolle to remain involved throughout.
The scoring outlook is notably positive, with both teams likely to score and the game considered high-scoring. The leading scorelines reflect that balance: 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2. This suggests PEC Zwolle have a credible route to an equaliser or a share of the points, but NEC Nijmegen are marginally better placed in the overall outcome assessment. The most consistent interpretation is therefore a match where attacking contributions from both sides are expected, with NEC Nijmegen holding the narrower side of the advantage.
What matters before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen eliminated from Champions League qualifying
On Tuesday, 25 August, NEC Nijmegen were defeated 3-0 by Norwegian side Bodø/Glimt in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off tie, concluding their qualification campaign.
Perr Schuurs returns to NEC matchday squad
NEC defender Perr Schuurs has recovered from a long-term knee injury suffered in 2023 and is named in the matchday squad to face PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle secured first win of the season
In their previous Eredivisie fixture on 22 August, PEC Zwolle earned their first victory of the campaign with a 2-0 away win against sc Heerenveen courtesy of goals from Nick Viergever and Koen Kostons.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.