AZ Alkmaar — Go Ahead Eagles: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.1% |
| 12 | 82.9% | |
| X2 | 28.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.7% / 66.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar go into this Eredivisie meeting with a clear overall advantage over Go Ahead Eagles, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment is not without uncertainty. The available signal points towards a home win, with AZ Alkmaar appearing better placed to control the match and make greater use of their attacking opportunities.
The game is expected to have an open character, with a relatively high-scoring scenario and both teams likely to find the net. That gives Go Ahead Eagles a realistic route into the contest, particularly if they can exploit spaces during transitions, but AZ Alkmaar remain the stronger side on the available indicators. Scores such as 2:1, 2:0 and 3:1 reflect a contest where the hosts are favoured, while the visitors still retain some attacking threat.
What matters before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar won the Johan Cruyff Shield
AZ Alkmaar started their 2026 campaign on a high note by defeating reigning Eredivisie champions PSV Eindhoven 4-0 to lift the Johan Cruyff Shield.
Early top-of-the-table clash in Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar entered gameweek four at the top of the Eredivisie table with a perfect nine points from three games, while Go Ahead Eagles sat just two points behind.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.