AZ Alkmaar — Go Ahead Eagles: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.1% |
| 12 | 82.9% | |
| X2 | 28.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.7% / 66.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
AZ Alkmaar
1st place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Utrecht 4:1
- 08.08.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home NAC Breda 3:3
- 10.05.2026 away Feyenoord 1:1
Go Ahead Eagles
2nd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Den Haag 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Feyenoord 2:2
- 08.08.2026 home Willem II 4:1
- 17.05.2026 away Nijmegen 1:2
- 10.05.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:4
This season: AZ Alkmaar at home vs Go Ahead Eagles away
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar · at home | Go Ahead Eagles · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.67 | 1.51 |
| xG against per match | 0.95 | 2.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2026 Go Ahead Eagles 0:0 AZ Alkmaar
- 07.12.2025 AZ Alkmaar 2:2 Go Ahead Eagles
- 04.05.2025 Go Ahead Eagles 0:3 AZ Alkmaar
- 27.10.2024 AZ Alkmaar 2:2 Go Ahead Eagles
- 12.05.2024 Go Ahead Eagles 0:3 AZ Alkmaar
- 13.08.2023 AZ Alkmaar 5:1 Go Ahead Eagles
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar go into this Eredivisie meeting with a clear overall advantage over Go Ahead Eagles, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment is not without uncertainty. The available signal points towards a home win, with AZ Alkmaar appearing better placed to control the match and make greater use of their attacking opportunities.
The game is expected to have an open character, with a relatively high-scoring scenario and both teams likely to find the net. That gives Go Ahead Eagles a realistic route into the contest, particularly if they can exploit spaces during transitions, but AZ Alkmaar remain the stronger side on the available indicators. Scores such as 2:1, 2:0 and 3:1 reflect a contest where the hosts are favoured, while the visitors still retain some attacking threat.
What matters before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar won the Johan Cruyff Shield
AZ Alkmaar started their 2026 campaign on a high note by defeating reigning Eredivisie champions PSV Eindhoven 4-0 to lift the Johan Cruyff Shield.
Early top-of-the-table clash in Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar entered gameweek four at the top of the Eredivisie table with a perfect nine points from three games, while Go Ahead Eagles sat just two points behind.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.