FC Utrecht — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 35.1% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 82.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.8% / 2.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 38.5% / 61.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Utrecht face PSV Eindhoven in an Eredivisie meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment is not definitive. PSV Eindhoven are expected to carry more attacking threat and have the stronger chance of controlling the match, while FC Utrecht should still have opportunities to create problems, particularly if they can exploit space during transitions.
The available outlook points toward an open game with chances at both ends and a high-scoring profile. Both teams are considered likely to score, which gives FC Utrecht a realistic route to staying competitive even with PSV Eindhoven viewed as the stronger side. The main balance lies between PSV Eindhoven’s superior attacking expectation and FC Utrecht’s potential to contribute offensively. A narrow away win is the clearest scenario, but a draw remains plausible if FC Utrecht make good use of their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 3 Results
Heading into this fixture, PSV earned a 5-1 win over FC Groningen, while FC Utrecht drew 3-3 away against Sparta Rotterdam.
PSV Squad Availability
PSV Eindhoven remain without Jerdy Schouten and Couhaib Driouech due to injuries ahead of their trip to FC Utrecht.
Head-to-Head Record
PSV Eindhoven enter this fixture on a 12-match unbeaten run against FC Utrecht across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.