FC Utrecht — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 35.1% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 82.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.8% / 2.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 38.5% / 61.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
FC Utrecht
15th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 3:3
- 15.08.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 1:4
- 09.08.2026 away Groningen 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home For Sittard 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Ajax 2:1
PSV Eindhoven
2nd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
- 15.08.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Twente 5:1
- 10.05.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 4:1
This season: FC Utrecht at home vs PSV Eindhoven away
| Metric | FC Utrecht · at home | PSV Eindhoven · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.91 | 2.24 |
| xG against per match | 2.10 | 0.51 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 PSV Eindhoven 4:3 FC Utrecht
- 21.12.2025 FC Utrecht 1:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 15.02.2025 PSV Eindhoven 2:2 FC Utrecht
- 01.12.2024 FC Utrecht 2:5 PSV Eindhoven
- 21.01.2024 FC Utrecht 1:1 PSV Eindhoven
- 12.08.2023 PSV Eindhoven 2:0 FC Utrecht
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Utrecht face PSV Eindhoven in an Eredivisie meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment is not definitive. PSV Eindhoven are expected to carry more attacking threat and have the stronger chance of controlling the match, while FC Utrecht should still have opportunities to create problems, particularly if they can exploit space during transitions.
The available outlook points toward an open game with chances at both ends and a high-scoring profile. Both teams are considered likely to score, which gives FC Utrecht a realistic route to staying competitive even with PSV Eindhoven viewed as the stronger side. The main balance lies between PSV Eindhoven’s superior attacking expectation and FC Utrecht’s potential to contribute offensively. A narrow away win is the clearest scenario, but a draw remains plausible if FC Utrecht make good use of their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 3 Results
Heading into this fixture, PSV earned a 5-1 win over FC Groningen, while FC Utrecht drew 3-3 away against Sparta Rotterdam.
PSV Squad Availability
PSV Eindhoven remain without Jerdy Schouten and Couhaib Driouech due to injuries ahead of their trip to FC Utrecht.
Head-to-Head Record
PSV Eindhoven enter this fixture on a 12-match unbeaten run against FC Utrecht across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.