SC Telstar — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.5% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 86.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.1% / 34.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.3% / 64.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
SC Telstar
13th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 1:3
- 08.08.2026 away Nijmegen 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Volendam 2:1
- 10.05.2026 home Heracles 3:0
- 02.05.2026 away Nijmegen 1:1
Ajax Amsterdam
9th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Zwolle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 2:2
This season: SC Telstar at home vs Ajax Amsterdam away
| Metric | SC Telstar · at home | Ajax Amsterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.42 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 3.08 | 0.59 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 11.01.2026 SC Telstar 2:3 Ajax Amsterdam
- 10.08.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 2:0 SC Telstar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam have the clearer overall profile in this Eredivisie meeting, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. SC Telstar are expected to face sustained pressure, while Ajax Amsterdam should have more control of the match and the stronger attacking platform. The away side therefore holds a clear edge, but the assessment leaves room for SC Telstar to create meaningful moments of their own.
The expected pattern is an open game with opportunities at both ends. The high-scoring outlook is supported by the view that both teams are likely to score, which could make the contest more competitive than a one-sided defensive performance would suggest. SC Telstar will need to use their chances efficiently and remain disciplined without the ball, while Ajax Amsterdam can look to exploit their greater attacking strength across the match. The most plausible scenarios point toward an Ajax Amsterdam victory in a game where SC Telstar may still contribute to the scoreline.
What matters before kick-off
Ajax's European victory
Ajax head into the Eredivisie fixture following a 5-3 home victory over Swiss side FC Sion in the second leg of their UEFA Conference League qualification play-off tie (9-5 on aggregate).
Telstar's recent defeat
In their most recent Eredivisie match, SC Telstar suffered a 3-1 home defeat against Sparta Rotterdam.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.