Excelsior Rotterdam — Sparta Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Excelsior Rotterdam
7th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Nijmegen 0:0
- 15.08.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:2
- 07.08.2026 away Cambuur 4:0
- 17.05.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 3:2
- 10.05.2026 home Volendam 1:1
Sparta Rotterdam
10th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Utrecht 3:3
- 14.08.2026 away Telstar 3:1
- 09.08.2026 home Feyenoord 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Excelsior 2:3
- 10.05.2026 away Twente 0:4
This season: Excelsior Rotterdam at home vs Sparta Rotterdam away
| Metric | Excelsior Rotterdam · at home | Sparta Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.51 | 3.08 |
| xG against per match | 2.24 | 1.42 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Sparta Rotterdam 2:3 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 14.09.2025 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 17.02.2024 Sparta Rotterdam 4:2 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 01.10.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 2:1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 05.03.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:4 Sparta Rotterdam
- 14.01.2023 Sparta Rotterdam 1:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Excelsior Rotterdam and Sparta Rotterdam meet in an Eredivisie fixture that looks finely balanced, although the available assessment gives Excelsior Rotterdam a slight edge. The moderate confidence suggests that this is not a one-sided contest, with the match likely to be decided by small margins rather than clear superiority. A draw remains a credible possibility, particularly given the narrow separation between the teams in the projected outcomes.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes defensive control important, but the overall profile favours an entertaining contest with chances at both ends. Excelsior Rotterdam may have the stronger position in the analysis, yet Sparta Rotterdam retain a realistic path to taking something from the match. The most plausible scenarios therefore include a draw or a narrow home victory, while an away win cannot be dismissed.
What matters before kick-off
Noah Naujoks ruled out through injury
Excelsior's top league goalscorer of the current season, Noah Naujoks, is out injured for the match against Sparta Rotterdam.
Recent league match results
In their previous Eredivisie fixtures, Excelsior suffered a 2-1 home defeat against PSV, while Sparta Rotterdam drew 3-3 at home with Utrecht.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.