Excelsior Rotterdam — Sparta Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Excelsior Rotterdam and Sparta Rotterdam meet in an Eredivisie fixture that looks finely balanced, although the available assessment gives Excelsior Rotterdam a slight edge. The moderate confidence suggests that this is not a one-sided contest, with the match likely to be decided by small margins rather than clear superiority. A draw remains a credible possibility, particularly given the narrow separation between the teams in the projected outcomes.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes defensive control important, but the overall profile favours an entertaining contest with chances at both ends. Excelsior Rotterdam may have the stronger position in the analysis, yet Sparta Rotterdam retain a realistic path to taking something from the match. The most plausible scenarios therefore include a draw or a narrow home victory, while an away win cannot be dismissed.
What matters before kick-off
Noah Naujoks ruled out through injury
Excelsior's top league goalscorer of the current season, Noah Naujoks, is out injured for the match against Sparta Rotterdam.
Recent league match results
In their previous Eredivisie fixtures, Excelsior suffered a 2-1 home defeat against PSV, while Sparta Rotterdam drew 3-3 at home with Utrecht.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.