FC Groningen — Fortuna Sittard: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.7% |
| 12 | 80.1% | |
| X2 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.5% / 14.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Groningen enter this Eredivisie fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should be treated with some caution. Fortuna Sittard will need to stay compact and limit the hosts’ opportunities, while FC Groningen are expected to take the initiative and create the greater attacking threat.
The match profile points towards an open contest with goals at both ends. Fortuna Sittard have a realistic chance of finding the net, particularly if they can exploit space during transitions, but FC Groningen remain better placed to control the decisive phases. A narrow home win appears the most plausible scenario, with 2-1 and 2-0 among the likeliest scorelines, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative if Fortuna Sittard resist the hosts’ pressure effectively.
What matters before kick-off
FC Groningen recent result
On August 23, 2026, FC Groningen suffered a 5-1 away defeat against PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie.
Fortuna Sittard recent result
In Round 3 of the Eredivisie on August 22, 2026, Fortuna Sittard fell to a 0-2 home defeat against AZ Alkmaar.
Groningen goalkeeper involved in build-up
FC Groningen goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen completed the most passes of any Eredivisie goalkeeper over the opening three rounds of the season with 163 passes.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.