FC Groningen — Fortuna Sittard: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.7% |
| 12 | 80.1% | |
| X2 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.5% / 14.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
FC Groningen
5th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:5
- 16.08.2026 away Den Haag 4:1
- 09.08.2026 home Utrecht 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Heracles 2:1
- 10.05.2026 home Nijmegen 2:1
Fortuna Sittard
10th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 0:2
- 15.08.2026 home Cambuur 3:1
- 08.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Utrecht 0:2
- 10.05.2026 home Zwolle 3:2
This season: FC Groningen at home vs Fortuna Sittard away
| Metric | FC Groningen · at home | Fortuna Sittard · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.54 | 1.01 |
| xG against per match | 2.27 | 2.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.01.2026 FC Groningen 1:2 Fortuna Sittard
- 25.10.2025 Fortuna Sittard 1:2 FC Groningen
- 16.03.2025 FC Groningen 1:0 Fortuna Sittard
- 26.10.2024 Fortuna Sittard 1:0 FC Groningen
- 02.04.2023 Fortuna Sittard 3:1 FC Groningen
- 13.11.2022 FC Groningen 2:3 Fortuna Sittard
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Groningen enter this Eredivisie fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should be treated with some caution. Fortuna Sittard will need to stay compact and limit the hosts’ opportunities, while FC Groningen are expected to take the initiative and create the greater attacking threat.
The match profile points towards an open contest with goals at both ends. Fortuna Sittard have a realistic chance of finding the net, particularly if they can exploit space during transitions, but FC Groningen remain better placed to control the decisive phases. A narrow home win appears the most plausible scenario, with 2-1 and 2-0 among the likeliest scorelines, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative if Fortuna Sittard resist the hosts’ pressure effectively.
What matters before kick-off
FC Groningen recent result
On August 23, 2026, FC Groningen suffered a 5-1 away defeat against PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie.
Fortuna Sittard recent result
In Round 3 of the Eredivisie on August 22, 2026, Fortuna Sittard fell to a 0-2 home defeat against AZ Alkmaar.
Groningen goalkeeper involved in build-up
FC Groningen goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen completed the most passes of any Eredivisie goalkeeper over the opening three rounds of the season with 163 passes.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.