Willem II Tilburg — SC Cambuur: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.8% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 61.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.3% / 33.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Willem II Tilburg
18th place · 2 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 2:3
- 11.10.2026 away Utrecht 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home For Sittard 0:1
- 15.09.2026 away Ajax 1:5
- 11.09.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 1:1
SC Cambuur
14th place · 9 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 2:2
- 11.10.2026 away Zwolle 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away Den Haag 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Nijmegen 3:0
- 06.09.2026 away Telstar 2:2
This season: Willem II Tilburg at home vs SC Cambuur away
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg · at home | SC Cambuur · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| xG against per match | 1.81 | 1.76 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 11.05.2022 SC Cambuur 1:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 10.12.2021 Willem II Tilburg 1:3 SC Cambuur
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.55 → now 2.45 |
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg face SC Cambuur in the Eredivisie with a clear contrast between their recent form and overall league positions. Willem II Tilburg have struggled significantly, losing four of their last five matches and drawing the other, while conceding 13 goals and scoring five. They sit 18th with just two points from nine games, and their home record offers little reassurance: one draw and three defeats in four matches, with 10 goals conceded. Their tendency to allow more chances than they create highlights the defensive and territorial challenges facing the hosts.
SC Cambuur arrive in considerably better form, unbeaten in their last five matches, with two wins and three draws. They have scored nine goals and conceded five during that run, placing them in a stronger position to approach this fixture with confidence. Their away record is more balanced than dominant, with one win, two draws and one defeat, and they have also conceded more chances than they create on the road. This leaves some room for Willem II Tilburg to threaten despite their recent difficulties.
Overall, the teams are more evenly matched in the likely scoring pattern than their recent results might suggest, with both capable of finding the net. SC Cambuur have the stronger current momentum, but their away vulnerabilities make a straightforward contest difficult to anticipate. An open game with opportunities at both ends looks plausible.
What matters before kick-off
Player Availability and Team News
Willem II are missing injured players Wouter Van der Steen, Justin Hoogma, Calvin Twigt, and Amine Lachkar. SC Cambuur travel without suspended defender Devid Eugene Bouah, while Jamal Amofa, Jasper Meijster, and Wout Asselman are sidelined with injuries.
Current League Standing and Recent Form
Willem II enter round 10 sitting bottom of the Eredivisie table with just two points from nine matches as they search for their first league victory of the season, while SC Cambuur occupy 14th position with nine points.
Head-to-Head Record
SC Cambuur are unbeaten in their last seven matches against Willem II in all competitions, recording three wins and four draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.