FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.8% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
FC Utrecht
12th place · 11 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Twente 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Willem II 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Feyenoord 0:5
- 13.09.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
- 08.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 3:3
PEC Zwolle
15th place · 7 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 4:1
- 11.10.2026 home Cambuur 0:1
- 18.09.2026 away Groningen 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home Feyenoord 0:7
- 04.09.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 2:2
This season: FC Utrecht at home vs PEC Zwolle away
| Metric | FC Utrecht · at home | PEC Zwolle · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| xG against per match | 2.02 | 1.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.25 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 FC Utrecht 1:1 PEC Zwolle
- 31.08.2025 PEC Zwolle 0:2 FC Utrecht
- 01.02.2025 PEC Zwolle 3:3 FC Utrecht
- 11.08.2024 FC Utrecht 1:0 PEC Zwolle
- 03.04.2024 FC Utrecht 5:1 PEC Zwolle
- 27.08.2023 PEC Zwolle 1:0 FC Utrecht
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.20 → now 4.00 |
Match preview
FC Utrecht have a slight edge over PEC Zwolle ahead of their Eredivisie meeting, although their home record raises questions about how effectively they can use that advantage. FC Utrecht have won three of their last five matches, drawing one and losing one, with 10 goals scored. However, they have struggled on home soil this season, winning just once in five games while conceding 17 goals. Their tendency to allow more chances than they create makes defensive improvement an important factor in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle arrive in less convincing recent form, with one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches. They have conceded 14 goals and scored six during that period, highlighting difficulties at both ends of the pitch. Their away record offers some encouragement, with one win and one draw from four matches, but they have also conceded eight goals on the road. FC Utrecht sit 12th with 11 points, while PEC Zwolle are 15th with seven points, adding significance to the contest for both sides. The previous meeting ended 1-1, and another competitive encounter is plausible. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, making goals at either end a reasonable expectation, with FC Utrecht holding a moderate advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Utrecht coming off away win at Twente
In their previous Eredivisie fixture, FC Utrecht earned a 2-1 comeback victory away at FC Twente thanks to two second-half goals from Angel Alarcon.
PEC Zwolle snapped winless run last time out
PEC Zwolle enter the match following a 4-1 victory over Go Ahead Eagles, which ended a five-game winless streak in the league.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.