NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

NEC Nijmegen host FC Groningen in an Eredivisie encounter that looks evenly balanced, although the visitors arrive with the stronger recent results. NEC Nijmegen have drawn four and lost one of their last five matches, recording no wins during that period. Their home form has followed a similar pattern, with four draws and two defeats in six games this season. These results highlight a team that has struggled to turn competitive performances into victories, while defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern.

FC Groningen have collected two wins, two draws and one defeat across their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding nine. Their league position also reflects a more productive start, sitting seventh with 14 points from nine games, compared with NEC Nijmegen in eleventh with 11 points from ten matches. Away from home, FC Groningen have won twice in four outings and scored 11 goals, suggesting they can contribute meaningfully in an open contest. However, their tendency to allow more chances than they create on the road leaves room for NEC Nijmegen to exploit.

Both teams have reasons to expect scoring opportunities, making goals at both ends a reasonable overall reading. The balance remains competitive, with FC Groningen's attacking output offset by NEC Nijmegen's home advantage.