Sparta Rotterdam — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

Sparta Rotterdam face a difficult test against Ajax Amsterdam in the Eredivisie, with the visitors holding a clear advantage in recent form and overall performance. Sparta Rotterdam have won just one of their last five matches, drawing two and losing two, while conceding 15 goals and scoring nine. Their home record offers limited reassurance: one win, two draws and two defeats across five matches, with 12 goals conceded. Sitting 13th after nine games, Sparta Rotterdam will need greater defensive stability to compete with a side that has been far more consistent.

Ajax Amsterdam arrive unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws while scoring 18 goals and conceding seven. Their away form is particularly convincing, with four wins from four matches, 16 goals scored and only three conceded. They also create clearly more chances than they allow on the road, suggesting they have the attacking quality and control to put Sparta Rotterdam under sustained pressure. Ajax Amsterdam's fourth-place position, backed by 18 points, further underlines the gap between the teams.

The head-to-head record also favours Ajax Amsterdam, who have won three of the last six meetings, with the remaining games ending in draws. Their 4-0 victory in the most recent encounter adds weight to the visitors' advantage. A relatively open contest is plausible, with Sparta Rotterdam capable of contributing offensively but Ajax Amsterdam better placed to dictate the game.