Willem II Tilburg — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.7% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 78.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Willem II Tilburg
17th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:4
- 18.05.2025 away NAC Breda 1:1
- 14.05.2025 home Zwolle 1:2
- 09.05.2025 home Heracles 1:2
- 03.05.2025 away Nijmegen 1:1
NEC Nijmegen
12th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Telstar 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Groningen 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Telstar 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Twente 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 03.05.2025 NEC Nijmegen 1:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 22.12.2024 Willem II Tilburg 4:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 22.12.2021 Willem II Tilburg 0:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 12.09.2021 NEC Nijmegen 0:0 Willem II Tilburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg face NEC Nijmegen in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The available indicators suggest a high-scoring match, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the attacking phases particularly important, as neither side appears likely to rely solely on a cautious approach.
NEC Nijmegen hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level points to a match where the margin between the teams may remain narrow. Willem II Tilburg should still have opportunities to threaten, especially if they can maintain pressure and turn the game into an exchange of chances. NEC Nijmegen may be better placed to make more of those openings, but the overall picture remains one of an entertaining encounter rather than a straightforward contest. BTTS is the clearest signal, with the result potentially decided by which side handles the decisive moments more effectively.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie opening matchday results
Both teams started their Eredivisie season with defeats: Willem II suffered a 4-1 loss away at Go Ahead Eagles, while NEC Nijmegen fell 2-1 at home to Telstar.
NEC Nijmegen's Champions League qualifying victory
Between league fixtures, NEC Nijmegen secured a 2-1 victory over Greek side Olympiacos in UEFA Champions League qualifying.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.