FC Utrecht — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.7% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 63.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.7% / 61.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
FC Utrecht
13th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Groningen 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home For Sittard 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Ajax 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home NAC Breda 2:0
- 26.04.2026 away Excelsior 0:5
AZ Alkmaar
3rd place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home NAC Breda 3:3
- 10.05.2026 away Feyenoord 1:1
- 03.05.2026 home Twente 2:2
- 23.04.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 FC Utrecht 2:0 AZ Alkmaar
- 26.10.2025 AZ Alkmaar 4:1 FC Utrecht
- 18.01.2025 FC Utrecht 0:0 AZ Alkmaar
- 29.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar 1:2 FC Utrecht
- 19.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar 3:3 FC Utrecht
- 03.12.2023 FC Utrecht 1:1 AZ Alkmaar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar appear evenly matched ahead of their Eredivisie meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts and visitors a similar overall outlook, with neither side holding a clear advantage. That points to a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a pronounced difference in quality. With moderate confidence in this reading, the result remains open across the main match scenarios.
The stronger signal concerns the attacking nature of the game. A high-scoring encounter is anticipated, and both teams are likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1, reflecting a balanced contest in which either side could edge the result if it makes better use of its chances. FC Utrecht should have enough attacking threat to challenge AZ Alkmaar, while AZ Alkmaar also has the profile to create pressure and contribute to the scoring.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
AZ Alkmaar won the Johan Cruyff Shield against PSV before securing a 2-0 victory over ADO Den Haag in their Eredivisie opener. FC Utrecht lost their opening league match 2-1 to FC Groningen.
Injury updates for both sides
FC Utrecht carry several injury concerns including Vasilis Barkas, Victor Jensen, and Matisse Didden. AZ Alkmaar are without Jordy Clasie, Jizz Hornkamp, and Denso Kasius.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.