Excelsior Rotterdam — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 34.5% |
| 12 | 80.3% | |
| X2 | 85.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Excelsior Rotterdam
1st place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.08.2026 away Cambuur 4:0
- 17.05.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 3:2
- 10.05.2026 home Volendam 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Groningen 3:2
- 26.04.2026 home Utrecht 5:0
PSV Eindhoven
10th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Twente 5:1
- 10.05.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 4:1
- 02.05.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 23.04.2026 home Zwolle 6:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.01.2026 PSV Eindhoven 5:1 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 27.09.2025 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 02.04.2024 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 13.01.2024 PSV Eindhoven 3:1 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 08.04.2023 PSV Eindhoven 4:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 28.08.2022 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:6 PSV Eindhoven
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Excelsior Rotterdam face a demanding contest against PSV Eindhoven, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear overall edge, though confidence in that reading is moderate rather than absolute. PSV Eindhoven are expected to have the stronger attacking profile and greater control of the match, while Excelsior Rotterdam may need to remain compact and make the most of their opportunities in transition.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the attacking exchanges particularly important: Excelsior Rotterdam should not be written off if they can turn limited possession into efficient chances, but PSV Eindhoven remain the more convincing side across the overall balance of play. The central expectation is therefore a match in which PSV Eindhoven carry the greater threat, while Excelsior Rotterdam retain a realistic route to scoring and keeping the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Season opening results
Excelsior Rotterdam started their Eredivisie season with a 4-0 away victory over SC Cambuur. Meanwhile, PSV Eindhoven opened their league campaign with a 2-2 home draw against Fortuna Sittard.
PSV squad availability
PSV Eindhoven face several squad issues, with Alassane Pléa and Jerdy Schouten ruled out through injury, while Joey Veerman is suspended following his red card in the Johan Cruijff Shield.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.