Willem II Tilburg — Fortuna Sittard: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.6% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Willem II Tilburg
17th place · 2 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 away Ajax 1:5
- 11.09.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Excelsior 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 15.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:4
Fortuna Sittard
9th place · 10 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Ajax 1:5
- 06.09.2026 away Den Haag 3:2
- 28.08.2026 away Groningen 3:2
- 22.08.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 0:2
- 15.08.2026 home Cambuur 3:1
This season: Willem II Tilburg at home vs Fortuna Sittard away
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg · at home | Fortuna Sittard · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.33 | 0.81 |
| xG against per match | 1.98 | 1.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.04.2025 Fortuna Sittard 1:0 Willem II Tilburg
- 20.10.2024 Willem II Tilburg 0:0 Fortuna Sittard
- 13.03.2022 Fortuna Sittard 1:0 Willem II Tilburg
- 22.10.2021 Willem II Tilburg 1:1 Fortuna Sittard
- 16.05.2021 Willem II Tilburg 2:1 Fortuna Sittard
- 05.12.2020 Fortuna Sittard 3:2 Willem II Tilburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg and Fortuna Sittard appear evenly matched ahead of their Eredivisie meeting. The available assessment gives the fixture a moderate level of confidence, pointing to a contest in which neither side holds a clear overall advantage. That balance makes the result difficult to separate, with the draw and a narrow win for either team both consistent with the outlook.
The stronger signal concerns the attacking character of the match. It is rated as high-scoring, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests an open game with opportunities at both ends rather than a cautious encounter decided by a single moment. Willem II Tilburg will have home advantage, but Fortuna Sittard remain well placed to contribute offensively, leaving the match finely poised and potentially decided by how effectively each side converts its chances.
What matters before kick-off
Willem II team news
Midfielder Kasper Boogaard is sidelined due to health complaints. Attacker Vito van Crooij is a doubt after returning to partial team training during the week.
Fortuna Sittard team news
Fortuna Sittard head coach Danny Buijs made one change to his starting XI against Willem II, giving Anthony Descotte the start in attack.
Match referee
Dennis Higler was appointed as the main referee for the match between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.