Sparta Rotterdam — SC Heerenveen: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.7% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Sparta Rotterdam
12th place · 5 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:4
- 04.09.2026 home Zwolle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Excelsior 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Utrecht 3:3
- 14.08.2026 away Telstar 3:1
SC Heerenveen
11th place · 6 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Telstar 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Willem II 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Zwolle 0:2
- 16.08.2026 away Ajax 2:2
This season: Sparta Rotterdam at home vs SC Heerenveen away
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam · at home | SC Heerenveen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.66 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 2.18 | 1.85 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 8.33 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 SC Heerenveen 2:1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 14.12.2025 Sparta Rotterdam 0:3 SC Heerenveen
- 12.04.2025 Sparta Rotterdam 3:1 SC Heerenveen
- 26.10.2024 SC Heerenveen 2:0 Sparta Rotterdam
- 19.05.2024 Sparta Rotterdam 2:1 SC Heerenveen
- 27.08.2023 SC Heerenveen 1:3 Sparta Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sparta Rotterdam and SC Heerenveen meet in an Eredivisie fixture that looks finely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to an evenly matched contest with a moderate level of confidence. That suggests the tactical balance could remain close for long periods, with both teams having opportunities to influence the result.
The scoring outlook is more open than the result outlook. The match is rated as high-scoring, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. Possible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2, reflecting the narrow gap between the sides and the expectation of chances at both ends. Sparta Rotterdam will have home advantage, but SC Heerenveen remain fully involved in what projects to be a competitive encounter rather than a one-sided match.
What matters before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam winless streak
Sparta Rotterdam entered the match against SC Heerenveen on a four-game winless run in the Eredivisie following a 4-1 away defeat to PSV Eindhoven.
Shunsuke Mito unavailable
Sparta Rotterdam forward Shunsuke Mito was ruled out of the fixture against SC Heerenveen due to injury.
Dirk Proper out for Heerenveen
SC Heerenveen midfielder Dirk Proper was sidelined for the match against Sparta Rotterdam owing to an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.