FC Twente Enschede — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.1% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 39.0% / 61.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
FC Twente Enschede
5th place · 13 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
- 09.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Groningen 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cambuur 4:1
- 16.08.2026 home Zwolle 3:1
PSV Eindhoven
1st place · 16 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Ajax 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Utrecht 6:1
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
- 15.08.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
This season: FC Twente Enschede at home vs PSV Eindhoven away
| Metric | FC Twente Enschede · at home | PSV Eindhoven · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.51 | 2.79 |
| xG against per match | 0.58 | 0.93 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 PSV Eindhoven 5:1 FC Twente Enschede
- 17.08.2025 FC Twente Enschede 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 24.04.2025 FC Twente Enschede 1:3 PSV Eindhoven
- 06.12.2024 PSV Eindhoven 6:1 FC Twente Enschede
- 17.03.2024 PSV Eindhoven 1:0 FC Twente Enschede
- 25.11.2023 FC Twente Enschede 0:3 PSV Eindhoven
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Twente Enschede and PSV Eindhoven appear evenly matched ahead of their Eredivisie meeting on 20 September. The available assessment gives this balance a high level of confidence, so neither side enters the game with a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be decided by small margins, with both teams expected to have meaningful periods of pressure.
The clearest signal points toward an open, high-scoring match in which both FC Twente Enschede and PSV Eindhoven are likely to find the net. A 1:1 draw is one plausible scenario, while a narrow PSV Eindhoven victory such as 1:2 and a more open 2:2 draw also fit the assessment. The main expectation is therefore not a one-sided game, but an active encounter where defensive control may be difficult to maintain throughout.
What matters before kick-off
PSV's Winning Streak
PSV Eindhoven enter the fixture on a five-match winning run in the Eredivisie, having secured a 4-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam in their previous league game.
FC Twente's Recent Result
FC Twente earned a 2-0 home victory against ADO Den Haag in their last match, with goals scored by Wout Weghorst and Robin Propper.
PSV's Head-to-Head Record
PSV Eindhoven have won eight consecutive matches in their head-to-head record against FC Twente across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.