NEC Nijmegen — Go Ahead Eagles: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.2% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
NEC Nijmegen
11th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Cambuur 0:3
- 08.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Feyenoord 1:3
- 29.08.2026 away Zwolle 3:1
- 22.08.2026 home Excelsior 0:0
Go Ahead Eagles
8th place · 12 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Groningen 1:1
- 08.09.2026 away Utrecht 3:3
- 05.09.2026 away Utrecht 3:1
- 29.08.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 2:5
- 23.08.2026 home Den Haag 3:1
This season: NEC Nijmegen at home vs Go Ahead Eagles away
| Metric | NEC Nijmegen · at home | Go Ahead Eagles · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–2 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 2.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.49 | 1.71 |
| xG against per match | 1.61 | 2.58 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 NEC Nijmegen 2:1 Go Ahead Eagles
- 05.10.2025 Go Ahead Eagles 1:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 09.03.2025 NEC Nijmegen 2:3 Go Ahead Eagles
- 07.12.2024 Go Ahead Eagles 5:0 NEC Nijmegen
- 28.01.2024 Go Ahead Eagles 2:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 26.11.2023 NEC Nijmegen 1:1 Go Ahead Eagles
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen have a slight edge over Go Ahead Eagles in this Eredivisie fixture, with the home side assessed as the more likely team to avoid defeat. The balance is not heavily tilted, however, and the overall outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest. Home advantage gives NEC Nijmegen a useful platform, while Go Ahead Eagles remain capable of making the game difficult and creating a close finish.
The strongest signal is for an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That expectation makes a narrow home win or a draw more plausible than a comfortable result for either side. NEC Nijmegen should therefore approach the match as slight favourites, but Go Ahead Eagles have enough attacking potential in this assessment to keep the outcome uncertain. The most consistent reading is a match with chances at both ends and a small advantage to the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
NEC Heavy Loss Against Juventus
NEC Nijmegen suffered a 5-0 away defeat against Juventus in the UEFA Europa League on September 17, 2026.
Go Ahead Eagles Draw with FC Groningen
In their previous Eredivisie fixture, Go Ahead Eagles recorded a 1-1 home draw against FC Groningen, with Soren Tengstedt scoring for the Eagles.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.